Weather NJ
Jonathan Carr on 10/15/2019

Oct 15: Coastal Storm Approaching

Discussion: Our coastal storm players are on the field. You can see the energy across the SE US (just N of the Gulf Coast) which will turn and track up the coast and interact with the strong Upper-Level Low (ULL). As I’ve said leading into this storm system, coastal New England should take the worst

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/14/2019

Oct 14: Coastal Storm Developing

Discussion: Another October coastal storm is about to develop and hit coastal New England. This is the long-range storm signal that showed up a little over a week ago and with good reason. The upper-levels have remained impressively modeled well into the mid-range forecasting period. I’m seeing some

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/14/2019

Another Fall Smack (Oct 14-18)

Discussion: The original October 18-22 storm signal will actually come into fruition but not for the Mid-Atlantic US…rather for the NorthEast US for Oct 17-18. It was a solid signal which is comforting to see re: long-range ensemble performance. First we’ll see fairly flat/zonal upper-level flow (W

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/11/2019

Subtropical Storm Melissa Departs (Oct 12-14)

Discussion: Our offshore storm system has been named Subtropical Storm Melissa. Quite honestly she has worn out her welcome especially for coastal residents. She is still providing elevated tides and even a few fringe showers to extreme ECNJ/SENJ today. Melissa will continue to pull away to the E an

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/09/2019

Oct 8: Coastal Storm Approaching

Discussion: After reviewing 24 more hours of model guidance and live observations I think we’re locking onto a more defined solution for the coastal storm. The offshore storm system is approaching now and I’d like to break the impacts down as follows:Rain: Between now and Saturday morning most model

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/08/2019

Oct 7: Coastal Storm Developing

Discussion: October is traditionally known for coastal storms and nor’easters. The NJ-latitude Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are about 10 degrees cooler than they were just 4-6 weeks ago and therefore are harder to sustain warmer tropical cores. It’s not impossible for a hurricane landfall in Octo

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/07/2019

Sleepless in New Jersey (Oct 7-11)

Discussion: First we have a cold front that should push through between Monday night and Tuesday morning. We’re in the warm sector now of that approaching front which is why it feels a little milder and more humid today. This feeling should continue through tomorrow and end with the cold frontal pas

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/04/2019

Cool and Dry (Oct 4-6)

Discussion: A piece of upper-level energy has broken off of the NW US trough and made its way across S Canada to the trough currently swinging through the NE US. This energy is meeting up with the southern stream energy but too late for any type of phasing enhancement. It’s actually the very back ti

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/02/2019

Perfect Chowderfest Weather – This Weekend!

Long Beach Island’s Chowderfest should see amazing “fall soup weather” this weekend. This family fun festival features live music, craft vendors, activities and unlimited Chowder tasting with the opportunity for each ticket holder to vote for their favorite red and white chowder. The event is nestle

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/01/2019

October 2019 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how October 2019 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/30/2019

Summer’s Last Breath (Sept 30-Oct 4)

Discussion: The above image has been repetitively used recently and with good reason. Many are complaining that it’s too hot for this late in the year. We’ve had some transient cold snaps but nothing lasting. Well…the pattern is about to change. First a broad ridge will dominate the upper-level patt

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/28/2019

Great Conditions (Sept 28-29)

Discussion: Another upper-level ridge will begin building over the E US this weekend which should last through at least Thursday morning. This should produce several days of well above-average temperatures at the surface. One of those days is this Saturday. The other days likely Tuesday-Thursday wit

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/23/2019

Refreshing Conditions Return (Sept 23-27)

Discussion: Monday looks like the third and final day of the mini-warm streak that began yesterday (Saturday). A cold front should push through Monday night into Tuesday morning and return the region to refreshing conditions through Friday. Then another upper-level ridge of heat should build over th

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/19/2019

It’s a Dry Heat (Sept 20-22)

Discussion: A quick safety note to everyone along the Jersey coast. There’s a lot of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Humberto is pulling away and Jerry will likely make a close pass at Bermuda early next week. None of these tropical systems will directly impact NJ however rip-currents and

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/18/2019

Great Conditions Expected for The Makers Festival!

Weather NJ is proud to provide a special event forecast for the 5th Annual Makers Festival this weekend. The event takes place this Saturday, September 21st from 10AM to 6PM at Manahawkin Lake Park in Manahawkin, NJ. Free Admission to Festival Grounds. $10 Admission to the biergarten.Biergarten proc

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/15/2019

Refreshing Conditions (Sept 16-20)

Discussion: Upper-level ridging should dominate the pattern this week. As the ridge slowly builds and approaches (Monday-Thursday) NJ should find itself under northerly 500mb flow. The warmest areas of the US this week should be closer to the Great Lakes, maybe even S Canada, under the meat and pota

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/13/2019

Weekend Outlook and Tropics Update

Discussion: There’s three things I’d like to talk about:Tonight: Rain and thunderstorms will continue to push southward through the rest of NJ this evening. I expect them to clear the tip of SNJ by ~10pm. There’s an area of high pressure pushing everything to the S so once the cold front is through

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/09/2019

Warm Conditions Return (Sept 9-13)

Discussion: Hopefully everyone enjoyed the recent taste of fall behind Dorian’s departure. We’re about to be reminded that it’s still summer however. A few different areas of high pressure in the W Atlantic Ocean will pump a ridge over the E US this week. The ridge could even last into the weekend.

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/07/2019

Sept 6: Dorian Departs. Now what?

Discussion: Hurricane Dorian made landfall at Cape Hatteras, NC early this morning. There is some debate as to whether it was technically a landfall since the exact center of the eye might have missed land. But since Cape Hatteras went inside at least the NW part of Dorian’s eye that’s probably clos

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/06/2019

Spectacular Conditions After Dorian (Sept 6-8)

Discussion: Dorian’s far-NW side should bring rain, wind and coastal flooding to at least SENJ on Friday and possibly further N and W into NJ. Winds should gradually pick up overnight tonight and everything should taper off and pull away by early Saturday morning. Please see my previous post for mor

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/05/2019

Sept 5: Dorian Effects Approaching

Discussion: The above image represents where Hurricane Dorian should be around 4pm Friday. Hurricane Dorian will not make landfall, or come anywhere near making landfall, on New Jersey. The far-NW side of Dorian’s cyclonic flow however is expected to bring fringe impacts to the SENJ coast tomorrow (

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/05/2019

Sept 4: Dorian NJ Impact Update

Discussion: Per the latest (5PM) National Hurricane Center update Dorian is still packing sustained winds of 110mph and is moving N/NW at 8mph with a central pressure of 961mb.Dorian is just off the coastal Jacksonville, FL/Savannah, GA area. In the past few hours Dorian has looked healthier and the

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/04/2019

Sept 4: T-Storm Discussion for Tonight

Discussion: An upper-level 250mb jet on the N/NW side of the Bermuda high will couple with the dipping northern upper-level 250mb jet. This should produce a solid upper-level 250mb jet out of the SW over NJ tonight which has the capability of enhancing lift over our region. At 500mb we have a fairly

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/04/2019

Sept 2019 WeatherTrends360 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of September 2019 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this dat

  Jonathan Carr