You can see the two warm sector flows (associated with their own low center) that are directing the warmer temperatures ultimately from TX/NM into the Mid-Atlantic US. This will keep us warm and humid today and tomorrow. Today looks dry across NJ but tomorrow could feature showers and thunderstorms as the cold front moves from N/NW to S/SE. Friday we moderate cooler and more comfortable as high pressure moves in but kicks in an onshore flow. Pattern looks erratic as we could wash rinese and repeat again Saturday through early next week. I'll discuss this in much further detail tomorrow night in the weekend outlook. Then another cold and dry shot is expected to move in later next week. The upper-level energy associated with that trough will then either kick out or interact with whatever comes out of the tropics (if Invest 94L holds it together). Be safe! JC
Rain with embedded boomers are pushing across NNJ/CNJ. Once this batch moves through more are possible later today for entire state. Should all clear to the E by tonight.
Onshore flow should influence much of the Garden State today with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s (close to ocean temps). Only the interior areas of CNJ/SNJ should reach near-80 or break just into the lower-80s. The high pressure providing said onshore flow should hold off showers until later tonight/overnight. Thererfore we should squeeze out an ok day today. Tomorrow should feature a mix of sun and clouds statewide with showers and thunderstorms around but far from a washout. I'll have the full Monday-Friday outlook posted this evening. Have a great day and please be safe! JC
Some outer fringe banding from Tropical Storm Erin continues to move northward along coastal Ocean and Monmouth Counties. Once this pushes up and out there is more rain approaching from the W. This rain/energy seems like it's fizzling so no thunderstorm concerns. It should all push through and start a stretch of amazing late-summer weather from tomorrow through at least part of Sunday. I'm still watching the Sunday PM-Monday period for rain. The weekend outlook will go into detail about this tomorrow evening. Have a great rest of your day and please be safe! JC
Light rain is approaching from the W. Onshore flow should continue today and keep it cloudy as the precipitation fizzles through. E NJ coasts are subject to enhanced rip currents from the departing Tropical Depression Six (upgraded from Invest 98L). Be safe! JC
Dorian is a tropical storm that has entered the E Caribbean Sea. It will turn to the N and head towards the central E Florida coast. It must contend with dry air between its current location and Purto Rico as well as wind shear from the dipping upper-level jet to its N. There will be some land to deal with but likely not the elevations of Hispaniola. The dry air, shear and land will likely prevent any sort of rapid development. Whether Dorian becomes a weak cat 1 hurricane or remains a tropical storm over the next few days is uncertain but should the storm make it through these hurdles it could then sustain and/or strengthen some. The Bahamas are warm with lower shear. High pressure, establishing over the E US, will prevent a track up the coast. Therefore New Jersey should see zero impact from Dorian. Chances of a central E Florida landfall are increasing in the ~Sunday-Labor Day period. As of right now it would seem a solid tropical storm or weak hurricane would be the…
Positioning of high pressure to our N and low pressure to our S (Invest 98L's remnants) is forcing a tight pressure gradient for NJ latitude. This is resulting in moderate onshore flow which can lead to minor coastal flooding and increased rip currents along the surf. This image shows 10m surface winds for overnight tonight. Please swim with caution and obey all life guards. Be safe! JC
The latest tropical spaghetti (all tropical model storm paths on a single map) has indicated a shift northward. This would mean less interaction with N/E Caribbean land and more of a chance to strengthen while approaching the SE Florida coast. Something Floridians are going to have to watch. Be safe! JC
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